Nigeria: The Largest and Most Populous Nation in Africa at Risk of Becoming a Failed State?

By Andy Okosun, Social and Development Activist

Nigeria, boasting a population of over 200 million and a landmass of 923,768 square kilometers, stands on the brink of collapse. The current government, led by Bola Asiwaju Tinubu, has exacerbated the nation’s economic hardships, insecurity, and corruption, despite promises to continue from the previous administration.

Insecurity and Violence

Nigeria faces unprecedented security challenges that threaten the lives and livelihoods of its citizens:

  • Boko Haram’s insurgency has claimed over 350,000 lives since 2009 (UNDP 2022).
  • Banditry resulted in 2,371 reported attacks and 1,544 deaths in 2022 alone (Nigeria Security Tracker).
  • Kidnapping saw 1,043 reported cases in 2022, earning Nigeria the title of “kidnapping capital of the world” (Global Kidnapping Report).

The consequences of these security challenges include:

  • Over 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), with 80% being women and children (UNHCR 2022).
  • Economic losses estimated at $143 billion since 2011 (World Bank 2022).
  • Psychological trauma and erosion of social cohesion affecting future generations.

Electoral Malpractices

Nigeria’s democracy continues to suffer from electoral fraud and manipulation:

  • The 2023 presidential election saw reports of vote-buying, ballot stuffing, and voter suppression.
  • These practices have severely undermined trust in the democratic process, contributing to apathy and disillusionment among voters.

Governance Failures

Despite promises of change, the Tinubu administration has failed to address critical issues:

  • Electricity remains unstable, leaving businesses and households without reliable power.
  • Healthcare is underfunded, leading to preventable deaths and a brain drain of medical professionals.
  • Education is neglected, with generations enduring subpar learning conditions.

Corruption and lack of accountability have become systemic:

  • Billions of Naira meant for development projects are siphoned off, with high-profile graft cases involving government officials going unpunished.
  • Lavish government spending on personal comforts continues, despite citizens facing severe economic hardship.

Economic Consequences

The combined impact of insecurity and poor governance has devastated the Nigerian economy:

  • Inflation has risen to 34%, further straining ordinary Nigerians.
  • The unemployment rate is 33%, with youth unemployment at 55%.
  • 100 million Nigerians are now living below the poverty line.

Nigeria is experiencing a brain drain, with over 500,000 Nigerians emigrating in search of better opportunities. Additionally, the country has suffered from $10 billion in capital flight in the past year.

Conclusion

Nigeria is facing severe governance, security, and economic crises. The government’s dishonesty and failure to fulfill campaign promises have eroded public trust, while the economic consequences of these failures continue to worsen. Urgent reforms and accountability are needed to stabilize the nation and restore faith in its institutions.

Comments and observations can be sent to andyokosun24@gmail.com

Article contributed by Mr. Andy Okosun, Social and Development Activist

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