At an annual White House Correspondent’s Dinner in 2011, Obama took an opportunity to mock Trump after releasing the long form of his birth certificate in response to Trump’s conspiracy theory that Obama was not a natural born American. Trump laughed quietly. It is believed that he caught the fire to run for president that night. When Trump became president, he appeared to have embarked on a focused mission to undo everything with Obama’s signature on it from Affordable Care to Climate Change to the Multilateral Iran Agreement that had a handful of powerful nations involved including Russia, China, France, Germany, United Kingdom, USA and the EU as mediator. It was called the JCPOA— The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
There was one more country that should have been at the table—Israel. They were not there because they did not want to be. Benjamin Netanyahu was Prime Minister. He did not like the agreement. If it were up to him, Israel should be the only great power in the Middle East. Republicans controlled Congress in America. They did something unthinkable by inviting Netanyahu to address Congress without the concurrence of the sitting president, Obama. They thought they were hurting the President. They hurt the country instead. The world watched in dismay.
Fast forward to 2026. Obama is a private citizen. Trump is president for the second time. Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel. Republicans control Congress. This was a perfect time for a big mistake to be made in an attempt to undo an Obama era deal. With the obliteration of Gaza as backdrop, Netanyahu was thirsting for more adventures. He had a willing ally in a President who, if he had listened to his advisers ought to have known that a trap was being set for him by a dyed-in-the-wool hawk. For a man who campaigned on “no more wars,” the Iran war will forever be a blight he will live to regret.
It was a bad move.
I read the ‘Art of the Deal’ in the 80s. It is a well told story of how the American dream can be possible. It’s a must read for young men and women. Whether you like Trump or not today, that book is good. It came from a different Trump, from another place and another time.
Trump should have taken his own advice in that book.
In ‘The Art of the Deal,’ Donald Trump outlines several absolute deal-killers and bad negotiation habits. He advises that doing the following will ruin your chances of success:
Seeming Desperate: The worst thing you can do is appear desperate to make a deal, as it signals weakness and lets the other side “smell blood.”
Paying Too Much: Overpaying is one of the biggest mistakes you can make.
(Imagine using a $200m missile to take down a $37,000 drone.!).
Ignoring the Downside: You shouldn’t blindly focus on the upside. He argues you must protect the downside by always anticipating the worst-case scenario.
(Netanyahu sold him the notion that the Iranian people would overthrow their government after killing their top echelon leadership).
Being Too Greedy:
Getting Emotionally Attached: Never get too attached to one single deal or approach.
(Trump got caught up in Netanyahu’s emotional story of an Iran with a nuclear bomb threatening the existence of Israel).
Trump violated every single one of the advice he advocated in that beautiful book, the final one being the very first on the list— desperation to make a deal with Iran. Iran will be walking away with $300b in reparations money. That is what it is—no matter what other name it is called by.
In addition, the war has helped Iran to discover its superpower—- the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and hold the world by its—you know what already.
What lessons can be learned for the future when this American/Israeli war on Iran is juxtaposed with the Russian war in Ukraine?
It would probably be that Superpowers mess with small nations at their own peril because the nature of warfare has changed with the emergence of Drones. Iran produces millions annually and they were prepared to pull the entire Middle East down with them if they were going to go down.
America blinked.
Russia will blink.
The world will soon be able to breathe again.
One major fallout is going to be for now and in the future—a permanent damage or reticence in unconditional support for everything Israel wants to do in the future. JD Vance has signaled that he may not be too sympathetic were he to be president.
Looking to the future—-can America and Iran use this opportunity to heal? Methinks the world will be a better place if that were to happen.
APROPOS 2027.
Every time I think of 2027, it is hard for me not to think of Hamlet and his soliloquy, “To be or not to be, that is the question.”
I wonder what Tinubu’s soliloquy is when he paces the large hallways of Aso Rock.
Tinubu is confronted with a Sea of troubles. That is the burden of leadership.
He promised us 24/7 electricity. How was he to know that he was going to appoint a Minister who was going to be more interested in his ambition to run for governor than focusing on the task before him—- to help his principal fulfill his promise to the people.
One place where he has achieved the most—on the economic front appears to be the place where his people have not been able to craft the right messaging to explain to the people. It is hard to craft a coherent economic message to people who are hungry and do not see a way out. The way out is the message that his people have failed to communicate. I was blown away for example when I learned that Nigeria does not owe the IMF one penny. We paid off our $3.5B IMF loan in 2025.
Did you know that?
While they work on messaging, the president must reach out to address affordability by a combination of social programs. There’s none as powerful as actually putting money in people’s bank accounts. Even beggars have OPAY or MONIEPOINT accounts. Mr. President must move to address this by deploying a few honest people to help him work this out.
James Carville, the Democratic strategist of the Clinton era advised the President—“It is always the economy, stupid.”
That advice is timeless and goes beyond geography.
It may also be time to pull Seyi Tinubu off the campaign trail. He is not resonating with the people.
He is using the wrong words.
Remi Tinubu on the other hand could be a potent weapon in addressing the concerns of women.
They vote in large numbers. Women may like to see his wife doing something for women. It may be time to pay a visit to Babangida to pick up the plan that Maryam drew up for “Better life for Rural Women.” Call it by any name. Mr. President, you are running out of time.
Again about 2027, I wish I were Peter Obi. For the sake of a future Igbo presidency, Peter Obi should be working with the President, not against him. He must remember that the Yorubas were locked out of the presidency by Awo who refused to play the long game.
Tinubu may turn out to be the brightest politician Nigeria has ever known. He played the long game. Whatever you think of him, he has shown that patience has its rewards.
“Emilokan” was a doctrine, well articulated,
wrapped in courage,
stewed in the aqua of delayed gratification,
a masterpiece in political Algebra.
ON KILLINGS IN SOUTH AFRICA.
Mr. President, you must do something about the vicious killings of Nigerians in South Africa. You can begin by nationalizing all South African businesses operating in Nigeria. This will be in the fundamental interest of reciprocity which is the Grundnorm in International Relations. To all my Nigerian brothers and sisters— let us begin a boycott of every service and every product from South Africa.
ON RESTRUCTURING.
This topic has been trending since the beginning of the 4th Republic. I have always asked two questions regarding this matter.
Firstly, is anyone aware that there’s a country that operates without a Written Constitution? Yet, it has operated smoothly since Magna Carta (1215)?
The second question I ask is this: After writing your new Constitution, do you plan to import citizens from Chad Republic to operate it? Everyone seems to forget that we are a badly behaved people. That is the foundational challenge. That being said, it is hard to argue against the idea of us writing a new Constitution that we will all agree on to be the document that drives the future. My question remains—-After writing the Constitution, how do we legislate good behavior?
A PRIEST GOES DOWN.
It must be hard to hear the pronouncement from a Judge: “You have been found guilty on one count of X and two counts of Y.
A Nigerian Priest in Texas has received life in prison. If you’ve ever been to Texas, you will see a sign on their roads. It says what it means and means what it says: “Don’t mess with Texas.”
In the matter of the priest, all the women he actually had sex with were consenting adults. The particulars of the cases do not show any rape. The fact that he fathered a child as a priest does not constitute a crime. That’s pure lack of ethics as regards his profession as priest. There’s a pattern of inappropriate comments and inappropriate touching or hugging that was detailed through his years at different parishes. He failed miserably by not staying above board. What is troubling though is that the punishment does not fit the narrative. Is a moral failing necessarily crime?
Furthermore, there were 8 women and 4 men on that Jury. Who on this earth does not understand the implication of that lopsided situation?
The Priest was said to have been offered a 20-year plea deal. He turned it down stating that all the sex was consensual as everyone involved was an adult. Did he have a good lawyer? Did the Church stand by him in his travails like they did for those who actually raped 8-year old boys from the 50s through the 90s? Did his race play a part in that? Is it also possible that the women are coming out now because of the possibility of filing civil cases to get money from the Catholic Church which “should have known magically that one of its priests was going out” with consenting women who were old enough to know the difference between a priest and a non-priest?
My friends, some cases do not make sense.
It would appear to the lay mind that the matter of this priest falls more in the area of ethical and moral failure than the strict definition of a crime. Perhaps, that might have been the reason he was advised not to take the 20-year plea deal that was offered.
Jesus advised for us to avoid having to go to court. His advise was pretty much like the same one that Forest Gump told us that his mother gave him in the movie: Forest Gump: “Life is like a box of chocolates,” she said. “You never know what you’re gonna get.” Having found himself in a pickle of his own moral failing, the priest should have gone with the certainty of the 20-year plea deal offer rather than opting for the box of chocolates.
He chose to roll the dice.
Life awaits him with the earliest date of parole eligibility after 30 years. All of that being said, his situation should not in any way define how upstanding Nigerians are perceived across the United States.
THE EDO DAYLIGHT KIDNAPPING
Two Sundays ago, some hoodlums in a red Lexus that screamed “come and get me” attacked a vegetable market in Benin and kidnapped a woman. People were able to record the kidnapping in real time and it went viral. Thankfully, the police were able to deploy resources to rescue the woman and arrest the perpetrators. Good news is that State Police is coming, having scaled the Second Reading in the Senate.
Meanwhile, Governor Okpebholo has made a move by asking the Judiciary to help out by constituting a fast track court to try kidnappers. The House of Assembly may need to pass a law prescribing the death sentence to enable the Judiciary do its work.
That should serve as deterrence.
Until we meet again, goodbye and Goodluck.
