As the 2024 US presidential election is set to happen today, the potential outcomes of either a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory carry significant implications for Nigeria, particularly in areas such as trade, foreign investment, immigration, and international relations. Both candidates represent contrasting policies that could reshape Nigeria’s economic landscape and its relationship with the United States.
Donald Trump’s Potential Impact on Nigeria
If Donald Trump were to win a second term, analysts predict that his administration would likely continue his “America First” policy, which could have mixed consequences for Nigeria. Trump’s approach to international trade has historically leaned towards protectionism, which could result in higher tariffs on Nigerian exports, particularly oil. Given that Nigeria relies heavily on oil exports to the US—worth approximately $3.9 billion in 2023—any increase in tariffs could severely impact Nigeria’s economy and exacerbate existing financial challenges.
Moreover, Trump’s administration might impose stricter conditions on foreign aid, potentially reducing the financial assistance Nigeria receives for health, education, and infrastructure projects. This could hinder progress in critical areas where the country is already struggling. Additionally, Trump’s hardline stance on immigration may affect the Nigerian diaspora in the US, leading to stricter visa policies and potentially reducing remittances that are vital for many Nigerian households.
In terms of geopolitical dynamics, increased tensions between the US and China during a Trump presidency could force Nigeria into a more complex position as it balances relationships with both superpowers. This situation might complicate Nigeria’s foreign policy and economic strategies as it navigates its ties with China, which has become a significant partner in recent years.
Kamala Harris’s Potential Impact on Nigeria
Conversely, a Kamala Harris presidency is perceived as more favourable for Nigeria. Harris is expected to adopt a more inclusive and cooperative approach to foreign policy, which could enhance diplomatic relations between the US and African nations. Her administration might prioritise investments in infrastructure and development projects across Africa, potentially increasing capital inflows to Nigeria from American businesses seeking to engage with frontier markets.
Harris’s focus on global partnerships could also lead to sustained support for initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to US markets for eligible African countries. This support would be crucial for Nigeria as it seeks to diversify its economy beyond oil and enhance its non-oil exports.
Furthermore, Harris’s administration may be more receptive to addressing issues related to climate change and sustainable development—areas where Nigeria faces significant challenges. Enhanced cooperation on these fronts could lead to better outcomes for environmental policies and practices within Nigeria.
Public Sentiment and Economic Concerns
The sentiments of Nigerians regarding the upcoming election are mixed but largely centred around economic concerns. Many citizens are anxious about inflation rates that have reached a three-decade high and the depreciation of the naira against the dollar. The outcome of the US elections could significantly influence these economic pressures.
A Trump victory might strengthen the dollar due to anticipated protectionist policies, putting additional pressure on the naira and increasing import costs for Nigerians. In contrast, a Harris win could foster a more stable economic environment that encourages foreign investment and supports currency stability.As we watch closely from afar, our hopes hinge on which candidate will emerge victorious—and how that victory will shape their country’s future in an increasingly interconnected world. The decisions made in Washington will undoubtedly resonate across the Atlantic, influencing not only trade relationships but also broader socio-economic dynamics within Nigeria.
By Joseph Johnston,
Youth Editor,
Egogonews Hub
