The year 1979 was seminal for the Middle Eastern Region of the world. Up until then, Sadam Hussein was a factor, and very much a friend to America. So too was the Shah of Iran. Notably, the Cold War was still on and those were the days when America supported oppressive governments around the world for as long as they branded anyone else a communist even without proof.
Yes, America can be dumb like that. And it cost them, big time.
Historically, America has had a very mixed record in foreign policy just as much as it was a mess for a long time when it came to domestic relations between White people and Black people in America. Glaring inequities still remain and politicians like Donald Trump are very quick to play up such differences at the expense of the long term health of the country.
Whilst through the last three centuries, the United States drew a red line defining a sphere of influence geographically with the Monroe doctrine, all of that shifted with the advent of Oil as prime economic driver.
As Honey is to the Bee, so Oil is to America. They are Siamese twins. If you want America’s trouble, just mess with Oil supply.
Even though America helped Saddam to power, and turned a blind eye as he repressed his people, and gassed whole Kurdish villages such as Halabja, killing over 5,000 people, they would continue to be friends with Saddam for as long as Oil supplies were guaranteed not only from Iraq but also from other countries in the region like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and from Iran up till the 1979 revolution.
Notably, America had ownership of 23% of Iraq Petroleum and similar interests around the region, hence for America, not only do they not desire any form of destabilization in the region, any destabilization that leads to two red lines will be swiftly punished. The red lines are the destruction of Israel and disruption of Oil supplies.
Hence, despite the fact that America supported Iraq in the Iraq-Iran war, friend quickly turned to foe when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. They were roundly defeated by an American led coalition which drove Iraq out of Kuwait but stopped short of ending the regime of Saddam Hussein.
After the revolution and upon taking power, the Ayatollahs made it their mission to focus on building military power and creating enemies where non previously existed. They created, and, or supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Al Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and a support group in Syria as pipeline to Hizballah in Iraq—all of this in their so called “Axis of resistance.”
Now that Israel has decided to go after Hezbollah in a decisive act of decapitation and degradation, Iran feels compelled to come to their defense. Last night, Iran fired an estimated 180 ballistic missiles into Israel. Each one of those missiles cost $10m. Each one could have brought down a skyscraper. Imagine 180 skyscrapers coming down in one day but for the strategic partnership between Israel, the United States and its Allies that enabled them to intercept most of the missiles as they lit up the skies over Israel.
Israel is a tiny territory with a land size of 22,000 square kilometers which is slightly larger than Edo State at 19,300 square kilometers, or New Jersey at about 19,050 square kilometers.
The question is, how many such missiles are required to obliterate the entire strip?
The answer to this question is an existential one for the State of Israel and this is why I believe that Iran may have crossed a dead-red line in their irritation of Israel.
Clearly, the Iranian regime of the Ayatollahs according to Western estimates may have come full cycle in their repression of their people just like Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi did, and the country may be ripe for a regime change.
No country would be happier than Saudi Arabia to see a different kind of Iran right now, and in the event of an all out conflict which Iran is begging for by their actions, they may not have any country standing with them except maybe Syria.
Considering that Syria is next door to Israel, would they also want to risk decapitation and occupation?
This is why one may be led to believe that Iran may be standing alone in their recent folly but again, who is to say?
There is nothing rational about a war and once it begins, it’s a slippery slope.
After all, no one could have predicated the beginning of the First World War upon the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, but it happened.
Michael O. Ovienmhada.
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