Do Or Die or Do and Win?
For the past one year, after a lot of hard work, intrigues, high stakes money play, and sheer desperation coupled with bulldozing capabilities, candidates emerged not only in the three major Parties of APC, PDP, and Labor, but also among the Also-Rans.
Among the three major candidates, Monday Okpebholo was the only incumbent political office holder, being the sitting Senator from Edo Central. He was therefore a known quantity in Edo politics having roundly trounced the PDP in Edo Central in 2023.
Of great interest to everyone at home and abroad is the candidacy of Asue Ighodalo. Having never held an elective office, he was largely under the radar for the most part of the buzz for the off-cycle election season. Rumors had it that he was drafted by his friend, the sitting Governor. That support of (one) turned out to be both a blessing and a curse. To the extent that he won the Party Primaries, it was a blessing. A curse, because it came at a very high cost. You could say, and you would not be wrong—that the entire PDP hierarchy was wiped out in the blitzkrieg which his high-powered candidacy represented.
Question is: Could Obaseki have handled it differently? Many local politicians would swear in the negative—something to the end that: “They don’t call him ‘Ematon’ for nothing.” Ematon stands for Iron man. He gets what he wants, how he wants, and when he wants. All Civilities be damned.
And so, even though Asue is a highly respected, well regarded, and influential man with a magnetic personality, you could say — he has an “Obaseki” problem.
One thing is clear. If you had to give an award to the most hardworking candidate in this election, you would have to give it to Asue Ighodalo.
As for Akpata, he does not feature strongly on the Egogo radar— reason being, much of the Edo electorate had come to a consensus that the governorship should go to Edo Central this cycle.
Question is: could he play the role of a spoiler given the Peter Obi factor?
Is Peter Obi still at this time much of a folk hero as he was in 2023?
We can only wait to find out.
As Saturday draws near, I took a minute to speak to three Party operatives, Barrister Daniel A. Noah Osa-Ogbegie of the PDP, SaintMoses Eromosele of the PDP, and Dr. Justin Okonoboh of the APC.
Here’s what they had to say:
SaintMoses: Oshiomole will win his side of Edo North for Okpebholo but PDP will win the other side of Akoko Edo. The APC and PDP will split Edo Central at 55-45 for PDP.
In Edo South, PDP takes five of the 7 Local Government areas and cedes the two Ovias to the APC.
In his summation, Asue wins in a landslide.
On the other hand, the Rt. Hon. Dr. Justin Okonoboh, a former Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly had this to say: The Oshiomhole factor will help APC to win a landslide in Edo North. PDP and APC will split Edo Central but APC gets the edge. In Edo South, APC gets the two Ovias, plus Orhionwon and Egor. He says the Osarodion Ogie factor will deliver Ikpoba Okha to PDP. Everyone takes a chunk of Oredo, but PDP wins it. Interestingly, he referred to Osarodion Ogie as a good man.
In his summation, APC breasts the tape to Government House.
I spoke with Barrister Daniel A. Noah Osa-Ogbegie last year when Oshiomole was running for Senate. At the time, he said, “No human being can beat Oshiomole in Edo North.”
He still believes that Oshiomole may win Edo North for APC.
Here’s his in-depth analysis in his own words:
When I said last year that no human being could beat Adams Oshiomhole in Edo North, it was because he was on the ballot. This year, he isn’t on the ballot and the candidate of his party is dour and of no moment.
Yes, Oshiomhole would win the three Etsako local governments for the APC, but it would come with both emotional appeals and brute force, especially because he now has Shaibu, Dan Orbih and the Minister, Engr. Momoh together with him. The PDP has done a lot of work in Etsako to close the gap in this election. In Etsako West, Labour Party will cut the APC votes in the four wards in Auchi area because the deputy governorship candidate of LP is from Auchi and the APC members around there are disenchanted with Monday Okpebholo.
PDP will win Owan West comfortably because of the works Blessing Agbebaku has done there. Owan East may not be as easy, though it still tilts towards a narrow victory for the PDP, barring violence and rigging. PDP will win Akoko Edo narrowly as well. In Edo North, APC edges it, but not with much votes difference.
PDP will win Edo central. The Esan people are probably the most educated tribe in Edo state, but are also the most self conceited and political. They sometimes get too political and make basic mistakes like they did with voting for Okpebholo for Senate because they wanted to teach Clifford Ordia a lesson. I hope they don’t attempt to teach Obaseki a lesson and vote APC. For me, they ought to be grateful to Godwin Obaseki because left to Oshiomhole, the three leading candidates would have been from Edo South, but because Obaseki fulfilled the promise he made to Esan to support one of them to replace him, the APC was compelled to support an Esan for their ticket against Oshiomhole’s wishes. In the final analysis, the PDP will win in Edo central.
Edo South is the battle ground district. In a free and fair election, the PDP will win massively in Ikpoba Okha, Oredo and Egor to win the election. The disturbance from Olumide Akpata will not be enough to shake the PDP.
The PDP will win Orhionmwon, Uhunmwode and Ovia North East.
In Orhionmwon, even though the APC has heavyweight politicians, they are loathed by the people who can’t wait to see their backs.
This, coupled with the work Orhionmwon Council Chairman has been doing, will ensure victory for the PDP.
Asue ighodalo is very popular in the metropolitan areas of Edo South and will get massive votes. His message resonates with the people and his delivery is top notch.
He concludes that Asue Ighodalo will be the next Governor.
Now, here’s the kicker—an astute politician who does not want his name in print had this to say: He actually assigned marks to 7 factors.
Competence——10%
Federal Might— 20%
INEC. —-30%
Police. —10%
Violence. —10%
Real Votes. — 10%
Judiciary. —-10%
At this point, my heart fell. I became very angry, and sad at the same time.
He went on to pose the following questions.
If competence or education mattered, how did Edo State choose an Oshiomole over a Professor?
If competence mattered, how did a man who could not show a Secondary School certificate beat a Ph.D carrying Jonathan?
He capped it with the case of Imo State where the last became the first by the pronouncement of the Judiciary.
I became numb.
I am still numb.
Now, what does Egogo think?
In the absence of any reliable polling data;
Given the many factors that affect how we vote;
Given the extent of poverty in the land;
Given voter apathy because the people have largely lost hope;
—— this is what Egogo thinks.
In light of all of the above listed crude factors, the Party with the largest purse on Election Day will prevail.
We will not know who has the most money to spend until Election Day.
Conclusion: Too close to call.
Michael Ovienmhada.
